## The Trump Rally: Fact or Fantasy? A Look at the Stock Market’s First 100 Days He promised prosperity, a booming economy, and a return to American greatness. Donald Trump’s first 100 days in office were marked by a whirlwind of executive orders, policy proposals, and heated rhetoric. But amidst the chaos, one question lingered: did the stock market buy in? While Fox Business declared a “Trump Rally” fueled by investor optimism, the reality is more nuanced. Join us as we delve into the data, separating the hype from the substance and examining the true impact of Trump’s early presidency on the financial markets.
The Impact of Tariffs and Trade
Financial markets have experienced elevated levels of volatility amid Trump’s efforts to reset global trade flows to more favorable terms for the U.S. by imposing sweeping tariffs on trading partners. Uncertainty about the duration of tariffs and the potential for further escalation, as well as the possibility of the disruption prompting a recession, have continued to weigh on markets as the administration starts negotiations with other countries.
Trade Wars and Market Volatility
In his speech to a joint session of Congress in early March, Trump said the disruption caused by his tariffs will be worth it to the U.S. economy in the long run.
“Tariffs are about making America rich again and making America great again. And it’s happening, and it will happen rather quickly,” Trump said. “There will be a little disturbance, but we’re OK with that. It won’t be much.”
The Uncertainty Factor
Uncertainty about the duration of tariffs and the potential for further escalation, as well as the possibility of the disruption prompting a recession, have continued to weigh on markets as the administration starts negotiations with other countries.
The Long-Term View
Trump’s perspective on the benefits of tariffs and their potential impact on the economy is rooted in his desire to rebalance global trade flows to favor the U.S. He believes that tariffs will lead to increased economic growth and job creation, as well as a more level playing field for American businesses.
- Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminum have led to retaliatory measures from major trading partners, including the European Union, Canada, and Mexico.
- The tariffs have also led to increased costs for American businesses, particularly those in the manufacturing and agricultural sectors.
- Despite the challenges, Trump remains committed to his tariff strategy, arguing that it will ultimately benefit the U.S. economy and its workers.
Inflation and Consumer Prices
Consumer prices have cumulatively seen a slight elevation – to the tune of 0.17% – in Trump’s first three months.
The Inflation Picture
In March, the overall consumer price index (CPI) posted a 0.1% decline month over month while still being up 2.4% compared to a year ago, data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed.
Those readings were smaller than the ones reported in February. Inflation in February, Trump’s first full month in office, posted a 0.2% jump from January and a 2.8% increase for the same month in the prior year.
Key Commodities
Eggs, a kitchen staple for many Americans, have seen a cumulative increase in price of nearly 17% over the first three months of 2025, according to CPI data from the BLS.
In March, they remained 60.4% higher than a year ago. The cost of a dozen Grade A large eggs in the U.S. averaged $6.23 in March, per the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Practical Implications
The changes in consumer prices and inflation have significant implications for American consumers and the economy.
- A THIRD OF AMERICANS STOPPED BUYING EGGS; WON’T REVERT BACK UNTIL PRICES DROP
- Consumer confidence has taken a hit, with many Americans feeling the pinch of higher prices and uncertainty about the future.
- The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring inflation and consumer prices, and may adjust monetary policy accordingly.
Conclusion
As we reflect on Donald Trump’s first 100 days in office, one thing is clear: the stock market has been a wild ride. From the initial post-election surge to the recent volatility, investors have been on a rollercoaster of emotions. As we’ve explored in this article, the market’s performance has been marked by significant gains, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average soaring to record highs and the S&P 500 experiencing its strongest start to a year since 2013. However, beneath the surface, concerns over Trump’s ability to deliver on his promises, particularly with regards to tax reform and infrastructure spending, have led to increased uncertainty and market fluctuations.
The significance of the stock market’s performance during Trump’s first 100 days cannot be overstated. As a key indicator of economic health and investor confidence, the market’s movements have far-reaching implications for ordinary Americans, from the value of their 401(k)s to the overall direction of the economy. Moreover, the market’s reaction to Trump’s policies serves as a referendum on his presidency, with investors serving as a de facto check on his administration’s actions. As we move forward, it will be crucial to continue monitoring the market’s response to Trump’s agenda, particularly as he faces increasingly complex challenges, such as navigating the complexities of healthcare reform and dealing with the fallout from geopolitical tensions.
Looking ahead, one thing is certain: the next 100 days will be just as pivotal. Will Trump be able to deliver on his campaign promises and drive sustained economic growth, or will the market’s gains prove fleeting? As investors and citizens alike, we must remain vigilant, critically evaluating the administration’s actions and their impact on the economy. Ultimately, the stock market’s performance during Trump’s first 100 days serves as a stark reminder: in the world of high finance, actions speak louder than words, and it’s time for the Trump administration to put its money where its mouth is.