The wait is finally over! The most anticipated blockbuster tournament of the year has kicked off, and the results are already electrifying! In a surprise twist, “Sonic the Hedgehog 3” has zoomed its way to the top 10, setting the tone for a thrilling competition that will keep you on the edge of your seat. As the curtains rise on Deadline’s 2024 Most Valuable Blockbuster Tournament, the stakes are higher than ever, with the biggest names in the industry vying for the coveted top spot. Will “Sonic’s” lightning-fast start be enough to propel it to victory, or will other contenders emerge to challenge its dominance? One thing is certain – this tournament promises to be a wild ride, packed with twists, turns, and surprises that will keep you guessing until the very end. So, buckle up and get ready to find out which blockbuster will reign supreme in 2024!
Box Office Predictions
As the Super Bowl weekend approaches, Unionjournalism predicts a potential game-changer at the box office. Traditionally one of the worst times of the year for movie ticket sales, this weekend could see the best overall result since Covid for a No. 1 movie and the overall marketplace.
Super Bowl Weekend: A Potential Game-Changer
Universal/DreamWorks Animation’s Dog Man is expected to hold strong, with a high teens to possible $20 million second weekend. This would mark the best No. 1 take for a movie playing over Super Bowl since 2021, surpassing the previous high of $12.8M set by Death on the Nile in 2022.
On the high end, Dog Man could see a 44% ease, which would be higher than the previous Dav Pilkey big-screen take, Captain Underpants, which declined 49% in weekend 2 with a $12.1M take.
Universal/DreamWorks Animation’s Dog Man: Holding Strong
Dog Man led all titles on Tuesday with $1.7M and a five-day take of $38.6M, followed by New Line’s Companion, which chalked up $1.2M for a running five-day total of $11.2M.
New Releases: Heart Eyes and Love Hurts
Two new releases, Heart Eyes and Love Hurts, are entering the marketplace, both with “love” as a theme for the upcoming Valentine’s Day holiday. Heart Eyes, a horror movie starring Jordana Brewster, Olivia Holt, and Devon Sawa, is expected to do $7M-$8M (maybe $10M, per rivals) at 3,000 theaters.
Love Hurts, a gritty action title starring Everything Everywhere All at Once Oscar winner Ke Huy Quan in his first solo headlining movie, is forecast to do $6M-$8M at 3,200 locations.
Movie Performance Analysis
The Super Bowl weekend has traditionally seen a drop in movie ticket sales, with three-day ticket sales for all movies during Super Bowl having dropped an average of -28% from the previous weekend post Covid.
However, if Dog Man holds strong, it could buck this trend, with all titles potentially doing just north of $60M.
The success of Heart Eyes and Love Hurts will depend on their ability to attract diverse audiences and capitalize on the Valentine’s Day holiday.
Both studios see Heart Eyes and Love Hurts as date-night movies, which could help them perform well despite the Super Bowl weekend.
Genre Movies: A Thrifty Approach
As the Super Bowl weekend approaches, two thrifty genre movies are set to make their debut, capitalizing on the Valentine’s Day theme. Spyglass/Sony’s Heart Eyes, a horror movie with a budget of $18 million, is expected to rake in $7 million to $10 million at 3,000 theaters. Meanwhile, Universal and 87North’s Love Hurts, an action title with a budget of $18 million, is predicted to earn $6 million to $8 million at 3,200 locations.
Both movies are seen as date-night options, with Heart Eyes attracting a younger audience, particularly Latinos and Hispanics, while Love Hurts is expected to draw in a diverse crowd, especially on the West Coast.
Market Trends and Implications
Studios’ Strategy: Booking Movies over Super Bowl Weekend
Despite the Super Bowl being traditionally one of the worst times of the year at the box office, studios have not shied away from booking movies over the weekend. This is because people still go to the movies on Friday and Saturday. In fact, Universal/DreamWorks Animation’s Dog Man is expected to have a high teens to possible $20 million second weekend, which would mark the best No. 1 take for a movie playing over Super Bowl since 2021.
The previous high belongs to the 2022 opening of Death on the Nile with $12.8 million. If Dog Man reaches the high end of its predicted range, it would be a 44% ease from the previous Dav Pilkey big-screen take, 2017’s Captain Underpants, which declined 49% in weekend 2 with a $12.1 million take.
The Future of Box Office: Post-Covid Recovery
The Super Bowl weekend could potentially see the best overall result since Covid for a No. 1 movie and the overall marketplace this week. The best overall Super Bowl box office weekend since the pandemic was also in 2022, with $53.8 million for all titles. Three-day ticket sales for all movies during Super Bowl have dropped an average of -28% from the previous weekend post Covid. If that calculation holds up, look for all titles to do just north of $60 million.
Cloverfield 2 and Wonka: Upcoming Releases to Watch
Unionjournalism takes a closer look at two highly anticipated upcoming releases: Cloverfield 2 and Wonka. Cloverfield 2, the upcoming sequel to the original movie, will directly follow the events of the first film in the same timeline. The director of the first Cloverfield movie, Matt Reeves, has teased that the sequel’s storyline may be inspired by the Covid-19 pandemic. Although there is currently no set release date, Cloverfield 2 could potentially be released in 2025 once the ongoing SAG-AFTRA strikes are resolved.
Meanwhile, Warner Bros will be releasing Wonka on March 17, 2023, a prequel to Roald Dahl’s Charlie and the Chocolate Factory that focuses on the candy architect Willy Wonka’s younger days before having his confection empire. The movie has been in development for about four years, with David Heyman attached as producer and Paddington director Paul King helming. Simon Farnaby co-wrote the script.
Conclusion
As Deadline’s 2024 Most Valuable Blockbuster Tournament gets off to a thrilling start, the inclusion of “Sonic The Hedgehog 3” at number 10 is a testament to the enduring popularity of the beloved video game franchise. The article highlights the film’s impressive performance at the box office, with a notable mention of its successful opening weekend. This marks a significant milestone for the franchise, demonstrating its continued relevance in the ever-changing entertainment landscape.
The implications of “Sonic The Hedgehog 3” making it to the top 10 are substantial. The film’s commercial success serves as a reminder that nostalgia-driven content can still resonate with audiences, generating significant revenue for studios. Furthermore, this trend suggests a shift in the industry’s focus towards reimagining classic IPs, catering to the growing demand for retro-themed entertainment. As we move forward, it’s likely that we’ll see more big-budget adaptations of beloved franchises, capitalizing on the nostalgia of older generations and the curiosity of newer ones.
As we continue to witness the evolution of the entertainment industry, one thing is clear: the line between old and new is blurring, and the most successful blockbusters will be those that cleverly balance nostalgia with innovation. The inclusion of “Sonic The Hedgehog 3” in Deadline’s Most Valuable Blockbuster Tournament is a harbinger of this trend, and it will be fascinating to see how studios navigate this delicate balance in the years to come. The question remains: what other beloved franchises will be reimagined and reinvigorated in the pursuit of cinematic greatness?